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July Virge Prop Bets
http://www.fulltiltforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=7156		 Page 1 of 6
Author:  virge [ Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:43 pm ]
Post subject:  July Virge Prop Bets
1:1 - Virge plays > 110k holdem cash game hands

FWIW, my most hands played in a month was 100k in June. I have hit 70k twice. I crashed at about 97k hands and went on 10 BI downswing for last 2-3k hands.

3:1 - Virge plays > 130k cash game hands

only willing to do this with sizeable action because it will probably be -EV or 0EV as far as profit goes from playing.

2:1 - Virge is biggest winner at 50pl (excluding HU players)

This will be 6m and FR tables only. I was either 1st or 2nd last month, but neither sleekest(family, he's doing 50k+ hands this month) nor el nino 1 (moved to Vegas, was without setup for almost 2 weeks) put in significant volume.

4:1 Highest WR at 50pl (HU players/tables excluded, 25k hand minimum)

It's going to be really tough to beat sleekest. He's the best 50pl player, and I have action against him playing over 50k hands, so at the very least he's going to play 40k+ and his lifetime winrate is over 6. In addition to that, 30k hands is a pretty small sample statistically so it's going to be really easy for some laggy reg (or newcomer) to book a 5+ ptbb/100 month. Also, el nino will likely have a 3+ ptbb/100 winrate, and it's going to be tough to sustain that for so many hands in addition to having higher variance due to VPIP/aggression.

lifetime pl50 wr (non hu tables): 4.96 ptbb/100 (edit: i'm pry missing some 2007->July 200k hands from this, so this is more like Jan 1, 2009 onward wr)

x:y (open to ideas) Winrate > X over Yk hands

I'd think 2:1 on 3ptbb 100, over 100k hands, open to other ideas...


Negative factors:
-The lobby changes a month or so ago have killed the deep pl games, so that's a huge downer on winrate.
-The shortstackers are back in force. Combined with fewer pl games running, this is huge. They kill my light opens against deepstacked fish.
- historic volume for me, will require both long hours and more 6+ tabling than usual.

Tracking -
Hands played will be holdem manager. Will be happy to ship hands to anyone with more than $50 in action.
Winrate/comparative winnings will be tableratings UNLESS i know someone who has a winrate in question. In which case I will get HEM graph from them to compare.

I will post graphs every 7 days.

Escrow -

Sly has graciously offered to escrow the bets.

Cancellation

1) Death of immediate family member (there's only my mom and grandmother (2))
2) illness requiring > 1 day hospitalization or that is disabling for online poker.


By the way, the two types (hands v winrate/winnings) of bets work against each other. Obv if all the action is on hands I could just mass table and break even for 30k hands to get to a magic number. But wr would suffer drastically, and winnings wouldn't go up.
Author:  virge [ Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
Image
Author:  virge [ Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
Image

= 2.8 ptbb/100
Author:  virge [ Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
Image

(you can see degradation at end)
Author:  virge [ Thu Jul 02, 2009 7:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
Booked:
$50 with nickyballs (2p2) on 110k hands (and against 75k for him)
$100 with vogelb5 on 100k hands (against his 100k hands)
$25 at 1:1 on 110k hands with Ost
Author:  virge [ Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
3,065 hands so far... vogel has 7k+, bastid


correction: 3,681 - forgot my AP hands
Author:  virge [ Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
mining all 50pl (non-hu) tables 24/7 at czglory's request to verify against regs who I can't get stats from if it's close... FR should get 100% coverage from early this AM through end of month (minus reboots).
Author:  virge [ Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
[8:30:10 AM] Andries H: Yeah
[8:30:20 AM] Andries Huisman: You think you have at least 20% chance to be the biggest winner?
[8:30:37 AM] Virge: yeah
[8:30:55 AM] Andries H: hmm
[8:31:10 AM] Andries H: but 6m too, which is the hard part
[8:31:19 AM] Andries H: if it was FR only I think it's closer
[8:32:06 AM] Virge: yeah, i have to beat all the 6m guys too
[8:32:25 AM] Virge: I'd have NO shot if i included the HU guys
[8:32:28 AM] Andries H: I think your chances are < 10%
[8:33:06 AM] Andries H: especially in holiday months
[8:33:21 AM] Andries H: It will give alot of regs more time to play
[8:33:54 AM] Andries H: Got any takers on that bet?
[8:34:53 AM] Andries H: lol, I'd cancel that one or change odds

Conversation with semi-full time 50 reg....
Author:  Dan The Man [ Fri Jul 03, 2009 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
thats a pretty sick graph
Author:  rawl316 [ Sat Jul 04, 2009 6:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
I may be interested in the biggest winner at 2:1... how can I tell who on the graph is 6m?
Author:  virge [ Sat Jul 04, 2009 6:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
rawl316 wrote:
I may be interested in the biggest winner at 2:1... how can I tell who on the graph is 6m?



Riddik21 is 6m I think, not sure about the others (el nino/sleekest/mekkler obv fr) the way to to tell is search Biggest Winners, then if you click on their name you can see the games they play under sessions.

Like if you try kristina you'll see it's all HU tables.
Author:  virge [ Sat Jul 04, 2009 8:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
btw, pretty sure tr didn't start tracking 50 until recently
Author:  rawl316 [ Sun Jul 05, 2009 7:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
nm
Author:  virge [ Sun Jul 05, 2009 12:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
might be last day for me booking, good time to get in imo

7.5kish hands -1 ptbb/100
Author:  DraNDead [ Sun Jul 05, 2009 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July Virge Prop Bets
Virge, this is really impressive and far beyond my analytic skills...whatever it all means.... :thumbup:
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